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Standard deficit accounting neglects the growth dividend: the amount by which annual GDP growth shrinks the debt-GDP ratio. America's growth dividend has more than doubled since the Great Recession because the debt ratio has more than doubled, leading to headline deficits that far exceed changes...
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We develop a Bayesian latent factor model of the joint evolution of GDP per capita for 113 countries over the 118 years from 1900 to 2017. We find considerable heterogeneity in rates of convergence, including rates for some countries that are so slow that they might not converge (or diverge) in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480537
Empirical analyses of climatic event impacts on growth, while critical for policy, have been slow to be incorporated into macroeconomic climate-economy models. This paper proposes a joint empirical-structural approach to bridge this gap for tropical cyclones. First, we review competing empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480548
Prior work has established that the financing environment can impact firm strategy. We argue that this influence can shape the earliest strategic choices of a new venture by creating a potential tradeoff between two objectives: rapid growth and reaping the benefits of a positive reputation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480556
This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between measures of population aging and per-capita output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480557
We examine the negative relationship between the rate of growth in credit and the rate of growth in output per worker. Using a panel of 20 countries over 25 years, we establish that there is a robust correlation: the higher the growth rate of credit, the lower the growth rate of output per...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480730