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Population growth, the natural rate of interest, and inflation

Weiske, Sebastian - 2019

Population growth rates have fallen considerably in most developed countries. An important question for monetary policy is whether this has led to a fall in the natural rate of interest. In representative agent models, the response of the natural rate to a fertility shock crucially depends on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011980508

Government deficit shocks and Okun's coefficient volatility : new insights on the austerity versus growth debate

Binh Thai Pham; Sala, Hector - 2019

This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054782

The Macroeconomic Determinants of the US Term-Structure during the Great Moderation

Paccagnini, Alessia - 2014

The aim of this paper is to study how macroeconomic impulses can affect the term structure during the Great Moderation. As novelty in the research strategy, we create a term-structure using three latent factors of the yield curve. A Nelson-Siegel Model is implemented to estimate the latent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014144946

Government Deficit Shocks and Okun's Coefficient Volatility : New Insights on the Austerity Versus Growth Debate

Binh Thai Pham - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881

On the Link Between Volatility and Growth

Posch, Olaf; Wälde, Klaus - 2012

of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is … illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ in their volatility and growth … process. We obtain analytical measures of macro volatility based on cyclical output and on output growth rates for plausible …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014204793

The Yield Curve’s Search for the Natural Rate of Interest

Carr, Douglas - 2019

Two novel models specify interest rates from factors other than time to demonstrate bond market expectations of riskless rates converge to the natural rate of interest.The first yield curve model is based upon risk rather than time. The riskless rate is the incremental yield for an infinitesimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012898619

Analysing oil price- macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria

Abdulkareem, Alhassan; Abdulhakeem, Kilishi A. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 7 (2016) 1, pp. 1-22

This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the … GARCH - M); and oil price is a major source of macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria. By implication, the Nigerian economy is … vulnerable to both internal shocks (interest rate volatility, real GDP volatility) and external shocks (exchange rate volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460195

Banking networks and economic growth: from idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations

Kundu, Shohini; Vats, Nishant - 2021

This paper explores the transmission of non-capital shocks through banking networks. We develop a methodology to construct non-capital (idiosyncratic) shocks, using labor productivity shocks to large firms. We document a change in the relationship between foreign idiosyncratic shocks and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012694566

How Competition in the Banking Industry Affects Economic Growth, Endogenous Volatility, and Welfare

Rauber, Tom; Ritschel, Paul - 2022

This paper examines how the degree of interbank competition affects real economic growth, growth patterns, and consumer welfare using a dynamical systems approach. Risk averse agents insure against idiosyncratic risk via deposit contracts that maximize bank profits. These contracts are derived...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013491622

Financial Conditions, Business Cycle Fluctuations and Growth at Risk

Falconio, Andrea - 2020

We study the macroeconomic consequences of financial shocks and increase in economic risk using a quantile vector autoregression. Financial shocks have a negative, but asymmetric impact on the real economy: they substantially increase growth at risk, but have limited impact on upside potential....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822485