We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...

The crisis has exposed the failure of economic models to deal sensibly with endogenously generated crises propagating from the financial sectors to the real economy, and back again. The goal of this paper is to review the method of stock flow consistent modeling to highlight areas in which it is...

We examine the connection between banking crises and measures of economic freedom disseminated by the Fraser Institute. We find that higher economic freedom – more personal choice, freedom of exchange, and protection of private property – is associated with a lower probability of a banking...

People are the original knowledge carriers of a society.Here it is shown how prosperity will arise in the future where people live, when the individual can secure a stable, safe income for himself as a knowledge carrier by his own efforts. Economic crises, which hitherto faced the individual...