Debates about the conduct of monetary policy have evolved over time from “rules versus discretion” to “policy rules versus constrained discretion.” We propose a metric to evaluate monetary policy rules that are consistent with constrained discretion by calculating quadratic loss ratios,...

This paper develops a theoretical model that identifies the relationship between the volatility of private sector wages and growth. The model suggests two distinct channels in which wage volatility affects growth: a positive direct way and a negative indirect way. The direct effect stems from...

We study changes in the plucking behavior of employment growth, as well as changes in its relationship with the output cycle in the G7 countries. Using both revised and real-time data, we consider several popular measures of the output cycle. For most countries, we see significant evidence in...