Building on a proper selection of macroeconomic variables for constructing a GDP forecasting multivariate model (Kazanas, 2017), this paper evaluates whether alternative Bayesian model specifications can provide greater forecasting accuracy compared to a standard VECM model. To that end, two...

This study evaluates oil price forecasts based on their economic significance for macroeconomic predictions. More specifically, we first use the current state-of-the-art frameworks to forecast monthly oil prices and subsequently we use these forecasts, as oil price assumptions, to predict...