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The 2001 recession was unique in several respects. For instance, the peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product was one of the smallest on record and its duration was slightly shorter than average. This article examines some of the other unique features of the 2001 recession compared...
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We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time …
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CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic recessions. In simulation experiments, the CFNAI performed virtually …
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This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as …
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Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
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