Introduction: Government policies on taxation and social security are important determinants of population health outcomes and health inequalities. However, there is a shortage of evidence to inform policymakers of the health consequences of such policies. The Health Equity and Its Economic...

We nowcast the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and related lock-down measures in the UK and then analyse the distributional and budgetary effects of the estimated individual income shocks, distinguishing between the effects of automatic stabilisers and those of the emergency policy...

Caring has its most obvious effects when it is actually required. Yet the effects of care are likely to extend to other periods of the life course. People may anticipate the need to provide informal care, either as part of their fertility decisions, or in response to deteriorating health of...

In this paper, we introduce UKMOD, a new tax-benefit model for England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the whole of the UK. The model originates and replaces as a stand-alone model the UK component of EUROMOD, the tax-benefit model for the European Union member states, which from 2021 is...

This paper investigates the behavioural dynamics of the take-up of social benefits in the UK. Utilising data from the first nine waves (2010-2019) of the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) and eligibility simulations based on the UKMOD tax-benefit calculator (UKHLS-UKMOD), the study finds...

We propose a model-based decomposition method for the aggregate labour share in terms of the first moments of the joint distribution of TFP, market power, wages and prices, and apply it to UK manufacturing using firm-level data for 1998-2014. Contrary to a narrative focussing on increasing...

We suggest a new individual-based measure of economic insecurity where expectations about the future evolution of individual life courses are derived from a dynamic simulation model. This allows to take into account risks over many dimensions including work, family and health. On the earning...

The UK, and other high-income countries, are experiencing substantial increases in living costs. Several overlapping and intersecting economic crises threaten physical and mental health in the immediate and longer term. Policy responses may buffer against the worst effects (e.g. welfare support)...

Economic (in)security is attracting a growing interest in the social policy debate. However, there is a lack of consensus about how to measure it. In this paper we review the existing measures of economic insecurity, with a particular emphasis on objective measures. Our assessment is that all...

We develop a new methodology to nowcast the effects of the COVID-19 crisis and forecast its evolution in small, export-oriented countries. To this aim, we exploit variation in financial indexes at the industry level and relate them to the expected duration of the crisis for each industry, under...