We explore the impact of media content on sovereign credit risk. Our measure of media tone is extracted from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics database. As a proxy for sovereign credit risk we consider Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, which are decomposed into their risk premium and default...

We examine the information content of a newly created news sentiment index from over 300,000 articles from some of the most widely read newspapers in the US to explain changes in the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment from 1995 to 2009. Using ARMA-models, we show that consumer...

Many real life choices concern consumption in future periods. Previous studies apparently demonstrate that people systematically mispredict future tastes in such situations. This evidence, however, is also consistent with the idea that people understand, but do not approve of their future...

We introduce news sentiment as a variable that can explain and predict subsequent changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate, and therefore close a gap in the foreign exchange literature. By applying the concept of frequency filtering from the domain of electrical engineering, we show an innovative...