This paper estimates the “jobs multiplier” of fiscal spending using the state-level allocations of federal stimulus funds from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Specifically, I estimate the relationship between state-level federal ARRA spending and state employment...

This paper studies fiscal foresight – alterations of current behavior by forwardlooking agents in anticipation of future policy changes – using variation in state job creation tax credits (JCTCs).Nearly half of the U.S. states enacted JCTCs between 1990 and 2007, and their unique experiences...

This paper studies fiscal foresight -- alterations of current behavior by forward-looking agents in anticipation of future policy changes – using variation in state job creation tax credits (JCTCs). Nearly half of the U.S. states enacted JCTCs between 1990 and 2007, and their unique...

The share of employment in manufacturing as well as the relative price of manufactures has declined sharply over the postwar period, while the share of manufacturing output relative to GDP has remained roughly constant. Household preferences turn out to play a key role in reconciling this...

Presentation to Portland community leaders, Portland, Oregon, September 4, 2013

Presentation to Financial Executives International, San Francisco, CA, April 15, 2010

The share of employment in manufacturing as well as the relative price of manufactures has declined sharply over the postwar period, while the share of manufacturing output relative to GDP has remained roughly constant. Household preferences turn out to play a key role in reconciling this...

Over the past few decades, policy makers have considered employer mandates as a strategy for stemming the tide of declining health insurance coverage. In this paper we examine the long term effects of the only employer health insurance mandate that has ever been enforced in the United States,...