Let us suppose that presently unimagined is possible, that “the unexpected may happen” (Marshall, 1920, p. 347). Then “human decisions affecting the future, whether personal, political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation since the basis for making such...

This paper illustrates how simulation modeling can be employed to support the R&D decision of a pharmaceutical firm. We do this in the context of a simplified but realistic example, where a drug company has just successfully completed the second phase of a three-phase process for assessing the...