Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One of the most popular approaches is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides such judgments. We show that assessed...

In this paper we investigate the claim that decisions from experience (in which the features of lotteries are learned through a sampling process) differ from decisions from description (in which features of lotteries are explicitly described). We find that the experience-description gap is not...

Most decisions in life are gambles. Should I speed up or slow down as I approach the yellow traffic light ahead? Should I invest in the stock market or in treasury bills? Should I undergo surgery or radiation therapy to treat my tumor? From mundane choices rendered with scarcely a moment's...