We experimentally investigate the Outcome Bias in financial decision making. In three treatments, we vary the cognitive challenge investors have to overcome to separate skill from luck. Investors show clear tendencies towards the Outcome Bias in all treatments. The Outcome Bias is stronger, by a...

In subjective expected utility (SEU) the decision weights people attach to events are their beliefs about the likelihood of events. Much empirical evidence, inspired by Ellsberg (1961) and others, shows that people prefer to bet on events they know more about, even when their beliefs are held...