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in the future. We appeal to decision theory under risk, model ambiguity and misspecification concerns to provide an … into a low dimensional characterization that depends on the uncertainty aversion of a decision-maker or fictitious social …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217688
anchoring phenomenon in financial decision-making. We find that contestants anchor heavily on the initial dollar value of a clue … in their wagering decision, even though there exists no rational reason to do so. More than half of all wagers occur … manifests itself among college students. Overall, our findings suggest anchoring plays a substantial role in financial decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526727
The existence of ambiguity presents a challenge to decision-makers as it eliminates the ability to apply standard …, ambiguity arises in most strategically important decisions in some form because of the genuine limits on the decision … problems as strategic decision-making under ambiguity where choices over resource investments must be made in competitive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422373
We consider a market economy where two rational agents are able to learn the distribution of future events. In this context, we study whether moving away from the standard Bayesian belief updating, in the sense of under-reaction to some degree to new information, may be strategically convenient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012797563
In this short note, we show investors one way to calculate ideal investment sizing by using two rules of thumb based on a simple outline of individual risk aversion. We illustrate these two heuristics, which are not widely appreciated, with thought experiments involving coin flips and ketchup &...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012978604
Chisini mean enables these tools to be used as rational decision criteria. Specifically, we focus on 11 metrics and show that … intuitive notion of mean is the founding basis of investment decision criteria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932834
We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 …. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through a … differentiation of the population into two similar sized groups in terms of "over-confident" and "contrarian" decision makers. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516615
Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert … decision making. QDT describes a decision maker's choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of … subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514496
Prior research suggests that those who rely on intuition rather than effortful reasoning when making decisions are less averse to risk and ambiguity. The evidence is largely correlational, however, leaving open the question of the direction of causality. In this paper, we present experimental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010200793
I experimentally examine whether feedback about others' choices provides an anchor for decision-making under ambiguity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010364762