The long and sustained expansion of the nineties has generated, especially in the US, widespread rumours about the "death of the cycle". Nevertheless, towards the end of the last decade, it became clear that fluctuations of economic activity were far from being extinct. This has contributed...

In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...

El enfoque de este Memorando Económico de País (CEM) es revisar opciones clave de política y reforma a fin de que Guinea Ecuatorial siente las bases para un crecimiento renovado, diversificado y más inclusivo. De este modo, el CEM busca contribuir a las agendas de desarrollo y...

Over the past decades, India has developed at a scale and pace that few would have thought possible. From 2000 to today, in real terms, the economy has grown nearly four-fold, and GDP per capita has almost tripled. Because India grew faster than the rest of the world, its share in the global...

The global economic context improved modestly in 2024, supported by easing inflation and a rebound in global trade. Kenya's economy has slowed despite several improving macroeconomic indicators. The external sector showed improvement, driven by recovering exports and rising financial inflows. A...

Despite its many assets and a promising recovery from the devastating civil war, Sierra Leone remains one of the poorest countries in the world. A rich mineral endowment, a young and increasingly educated population, and plentiful arable land coupled with favorable rainfall are some of the...

Bhutan's real GDP growth rate remained robust in FY23/24. The agriculture sector grew modestly due to lower crop yields. The industry sector grew modestly, supported by strong growth in mining and quarrying industry. Hydropower and construction sectors recorded a lackluster performance in...

The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside...