This article identifies the best models for forecasting the volatility of daily exchange returns of developing countries. An emerging consensus in the recent literature focusing on industrialized countries has noted the superior performance of the Fractionally Integrated Generalized...

Persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability. "Commodity currencies" offer high interest rates on average, while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates. We develop a general equilibrium model of international...

This paper attempts to extend the range of countries covered by the IMF`s multilateral real exchange rate indexes based on relative unit labor costs (REER-ULCs) in manufacturing. A data set was assembled that permits calculation of REER-ULCs for 23 newly industrialized, developing, and...

This paper studies the behavior of emerging stock excess returns in an industry-by-industry context. We examine stock market performance for 23 countries and ten industries over 17 years from 1995 to 2012 – a period that includes major changes in capital market regulations, the removal of...

This paper investigates the predictability of asset prices among developed and emerging markets. Weekly and monthly stock market indices from developed and emerging market economies are analysed to check the validity of weak-form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) using various empirical...

This paper focuses on the analysis of the long-run response of the Real Exchange Rate (RER) to political risks and tests whether non-economic variables have an impact on RER in 31 emerging and developing countries. We use annual data from the International Country Risk Guide database over the...

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations. Using a sample of 128 countries from 1960-2008, we identify large nominal and real appreciations shocks and study their macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results show...