This paper contains new results for helping to understand financial crises. First, we present a new model for obtaining the probability of equity crises within one year in advance, and we test it. Second and separately, various markets already in crises appear quantitatively related to a theory...

We present further encouraging evidence for the Critical Exponent Earthquake Crisis (CEEC) Model that gives the probabilities of equity crises one year in advance. The CEEC model uses suitable precursor signals and is agnostic regarding dynamical origins of crises. The precursors accumulate in...