The topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watson and Gonzalo-Granger permanent-transitory decompositions in the framework of the co-integrated vector autoregression. We suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component estimate in a...

On interpreting the regression discontinuity design as a local experiment -- Identification and estimation using a density discontinuity approach -- The deterremce effect of prison: dynamic theory and evidence -- An overview of geographically disontinuous treatment assignments with an...

Bootstrap; Europäische Währungsunion; Frühwarnsystem; Makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte; Makroökonomische Überwachung; Penalized Splines; Risikoprämien auf Staatsschulden; Staatsschuldenkrise; Semiparametrische Regression; Signalansatz

Within the subprime crisis (2007) and the recent global financial crisis of 2008-2009, we have observed significant decline, corrections and structural changes in most US and European financial markets. Furthermore, it seems that this crisis has been rapidly transmitted toward the most developed...

This thesis covers the further development of smooth transition regression models and their applications in finance. Smooth transition regression models are used to model nonlinearity of regime-switching type in empirical applications. Usually, smooth transition regression models are used with...