Using equations that arise in quantum mechanics, this paper describes a way to more accurately and efficiently represent non-Gaussian return distributions than the standard method of invoking skewness and kurtosis. Then, it provides a new single intuitive number, defined here as the “crash...

We estimate a small-scale macroeconomic model for Japan by taking into account the nonlinearity stemming from the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the nominal interest rate. To this end, we apply the Sequential Monte Carlo Squared method to the case of Japan, where the ZLB has constrained the country's...

In this paper, we combine the theory of stochastic process and techniques of machine learning with the regression analysis, first proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz 2001 and apply the new methodologies on financial derivatives pricing. Rigorous convergence proofs are provided for some of the...

We conduct a Monte Carlo experiment using an ad-hoc New Keynesian model and a tractable agent-based model to generate artificial credit cycle episodes. We show that fluctuations in the implicit measures of the natural rate of interest obtained using a conventional trivariate Kalman filter on...

We evaluate the reliability of credit gap measures estimated over time samples of different lengths. We augment our empirical analysis (which turned out to be somewhat inconclusive) with Monte Carlo experiments. For this purpose we build an agent-based model that realistically reproduces credit...

We analyze the interdependence between the government yield spread and stock returns of the banking sector in Italy during the years 2003-2015. In a first step, we find that after September 2008 the Spearman's rank correlation between the yield spread and the Italian banking system changed...

Vector error-correction models (VECM) are increasingly being used to capture dynamic relationships between financial variables. Estimation and interpretation of such models can be enhanced if zero restrictions are allowed in the coefficient matrices. Specifically, in tests of indirect causality...

Premium Bonds sold by the UK National Savings and Investments (NS&I) agency are the possibly most popular example of lottery bonds. Premium Bonds holders renounce interest payments but instead participate in a lottery which distributes the equivalent of aggregate interest payments among them....

According to Basel III, financial institutions have to charge a Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) to account for a possible counterparty default. Calculating this measure and its sensitivities is one of the big challenges in risk management. Here we introduce an efficient method for the...

This paper provides evidence that interbank markets are tiered rather than flat, in the sense that most banks do not lend to each other directly but through money center banks acting as intermediaries. We capture the concept of tiering by developing a core-periphery model, and devise a procedure...