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Regularized estimation of structural instability in factor models : the US macroeconomy and the great moderation
Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2015
This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
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Estimation of Historical Inflation Expectations
Binder, Carola - 2016
Expected inflation is a central variable in economic theory. Economic historians have estimated historical inflation expectations for a variety of purposes, including studies of the Fisher effect, the debt deflation hypothesis, central bank credibility, and expectations formation. I survey the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989845
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Treatment of the Banking Holiday of March 1933 in Growth Regressions
Mladjan, Mrdjan - 2019
Government intervention during the banking holiday of March 1933 resolved the uncertainty usually created by bank suspensions. Including banking holiday suspensions in growth regressions therefore biases downwards the estimates of the real effects of bank suspensions. In this paper, I propose a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865724
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Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression
Bordo, Michael D.; Erceg, Christopher J.; Evans, Charles L. - 2000
This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014154226
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Is there really a global business cycle? : a dynamic factor model with stochastic factor selection
Berger, Tino; Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2016
We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556201
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Improving the robustness of Markov-Switching dynamic factor models with time-varying volatility
Aumond, Romain; Royer, Julien - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486414
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Dissecting the financial cycle with dynamic factor models
Menden, Christian; Proaño Acosta, Christian - 2017
The analysis of the financial cycle and its interaction with the macroeconomy has become a central issue for the design of macroprudential policy since the 2007-08 financial crisis. This paper proposes the construction of financial cycle measures for the US based on a large data set of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663432
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Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession : an extended Markov-Switching dynamic factor model
Doz, Catherine; Ferrara, Laurent; Pionnier, Pierre-Alain - 2020
need for macroeconomic forecasters to account for sudden and deep recessions, periods of higher macroeconomic volatility … Factor Model (MS-DFM) by incorporating two new features: switches in volatility and time-variation in trend GDP growth. First …, we show that volatility switches largely improve the detection of business cycle turning points in the low-volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227436
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Dissecting the financial cycle with dynamic factor models
Menden, Christian; Proaño Acosta, Christian - 2017
Finanzzyklusmaßgrößen für die USA vor. Diese basieren auf einem großen Datensatz makroökonomischer und finanzieller Variablen. Im Detail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011710012
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Public wages, public employment, and business cycle volatility : evidence from U.S. metro areas
Boeing-Reicher, Claire A.; Caponi, Vincenzo - 2016
business cycle volatility, hinting at a stabilizing effect of public employment, while public wages correlate weakly and … positively with business cycle volatility, hinting at a destabilizing effect of public wages. To explain these relationships, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011480769