The volatility of growth in U.S. real GDP declined dramatically in the mid-1980s. Viewed through the lens of linear autoregressive models, this phenomenon appears to be the result of a structural break in the innovation process that drives GDP fluctuations. We present an alternative model that...

The track record of a sixteen-year history of density forecasts of state tax revenue in Iowa is studied, and potential improvements sought through a search for better performing priorsʺ similar to that conducted two decades ago for point forecasts by Doan, Litterman, and Sims (Econometric...