The leading indicator properties of various of the money and credit aggregates over real activity and inflation is assessed, using Granger-causality tests and impulse response functions. The approach is explicitly disaggregated, looking at sectoral measures of money and credit and various...

This paper tests for unbiasedness in inflation expectations drawn from a survey of U.K. employees by Gallup. It focuses on the econometric difficulties presented by having a small sample, there being overlapping forecast horizons, and by trying to make inference when the data appear to be...

The Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) assumes that individuals base their decisions on lifetime wealth, not current income. Textbook versions of the PIH predict that the elasticity of consumption with respect to human wealth is equal to the share of human wealth in total wealth. Comparing...