We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Japan, we find that the estimated anchors across forecasters have tended to rise in recent...

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Canada and the US, we identify three key differences between the two countries. First, the...

This paper summarises ongoing work that investigates the pass-through from shorthorizon and long-horizon inflation forecasts as a way to assess the anchoring of inflation expectations across a sample of 44 economies. It reports an overall decline in the pass-through, with the share of economies...