This paper employs a regression-discontinuity (RD) design to ascertain the effects of social-democratic government on fiscal policy (budget deficits) and monetary policy (as reflected in inflation) and on currency and bond prices (i.e., exchange rates and yields). The RD design exploits the...

One of the central challenges to inference in the context of potentially interdependent observations, known as Galton's Problem, is the difficulty distinguishing spatially correlated observations due to observed units exposure to spatially correlated shocks from spatial correlation in outcomes...

Spatial/Spatiotemporal interdependence - i.e., that the outcomes, actions, or choices of some unit-times depend on those of others - is substantively and theoretically ubiquitous and central in binary outcomes of interest across the social sciences. However, most empirical applications omit...