Financial cycles can be important drivers of real activity, but there is scant evidence about how well they signal recession risks. We run a horse race between the term spread - the most widely used indicator in the literature - and a range of financial cycle measures. Unlike most papers, ours...

We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2005. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate conditions less predictable across countries, with...

We use an extensive loan-level dataset to study the influence of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the supply of bank credit to non-financial firms in Italy between 2008 and 2015. We use time-varying firm fixed effects to control for shifts in demand and changes in borrower characteristics, and we...