Projecting the course of infectious diseases and assessing the likely impact of policies to contain them require reliable estimates of the parameters in dynamic models of disease transmission. However, such estimation is difficult, especially for emerging diseases such as COVID-19, due to...

Effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic require integrating behavioral factors such as risk-driven contact reduction, improved treatment, and adherence fatigue with asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, and hospital capacity. We build one such model and estimate it for all 92 nations...