Market participants' forecasts of future exchange rate volatility can be recovered from option contracts on foreign currencies. Such implicit volatility forecasts for four currencies are used to test rational expectations jointly with the applicability of the standard Black-Scholes formula....

Crony capitalism and self-fulfilling expectations by international creditors are often suggested as two rival explanations for currency crisis. This paper examines a possible linkage between the two that has so far not been explored: corruption may affect a country’s composition of capital...