This paper deals with estimation and hypothesis testing in models allowing for trending processes that are possibly nonstationary, nonlinear, and non-Gaussian. Using semi-parametric estimators, we obtain asymptotic confidence intervals for the trend and memory parameters, and we develop joint...

We provide new evidence in favor of the expectation hypothesis (EH) as a long-run theory of the term structure of interest rates. Using nonparametric techniques, we show that the results of conventional tests that reject the EH are affected by the presence of extreme observations -- only a...

Suppose we have observations ranging over t=0,1,…T on real net investment, {I_{n,t}}₀^{T}, and on real gross investment, {I_{g,t}}₀^{T}. We derive a method of calculating the depreciation rate for each of the periods {δ_{t}}₁^{T}, and estimating `the' implied net capital stock...

This paper introduces a new method for estimating variance matrices. Starting from the orthogonal decomposition of the sample variance matrix, we exploit the fact that orthogonal matrices are never ill-conditioned and therefore focus on improving the estimation of the eigenvalues. We estimate...

Vector AutoRegressions (VARs) have now become the most popular tool of Time Series analysis amongst econometricians. Unfortunately, little is known about the analytic finite-sample properties of parameter estimators for such systems. The asymptotic analysis of VARs published to date does not...