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There has been a revival of interest in the effect of risk on economic growth. We quantify both ex ante and ex post … effects of risk using a stochastic version of the Ramsey model. We develop a simulation-based econometric methodology which … remarkable long-running panel data set for rural households in Zimbabwe. We find that risk substantially reduces growth: in the …
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Most measures of vulnerability are a-theoretic and essentially static. In this paper we use a stochastic Ramsey model to find a household's optimal welfare and we measure vulnerability as the shortfall from the welfare attained if the household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The...
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The risk of investment in schooling has largely been ignored. We assess thevariance in the rate of return by surveying … skewed. Our best guess of ex ante risk in university education is a coefficient ofvariation of about 0.3, comparable to that …
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This paper evaluates the predictive out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for both growth in aggregate M2 and growth in household-sector M2 in the U.S. using data between 1971m1 and 2014m12. The core contention is that economic uncertainty improves...
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