We study the expectations of individual forecasters in the foreign exchange market. We find that the survey risk premium is less countercyclical than the rational risk premium, primarily because it is not related to the forward premium. We also find that forecasters learn from their own forecast...

We study the expectations of individual forecasters in the foreign exchange market. We find that the survey risk premium is less countercyclical than the rational risk premium, primarily because it is not related to the forward premium. We also find that forecasters learn from their own forecast...

The price adjustment coefficient model of Amihud and Mendelson (1987) is shown to be suitable for estimation by the Kalman filter. A techique that, under some commonly used conditions, is asymptotically efficient. By Monte Carlo simulations it is shown that both bias and mean squared error are...