Since Friedman (1968), the traditional derivation of the accelerationist Phillips curve has related expected real wage inflation to the unemployment rate and then invoked markup pricing and adaptive expectations to generate the accelerationist price inflation equation. Blanchflower and Oswald...

Betting markets are efficient if expected payouts on all possible bets on an event are equal. We compare two regression-based methods for testing for efficiency that have been used in previous research: One that uses normalized probabilities as the explanatory variable for payouts and one that...