This paper presents the first comparison of the accuracy of density forecasts for stock prices. Six sets of forecasts are evaluated for DJIA stocks, across four forecast horizons. Two forecasts are risk-neutral densities implied by the Black-Scholes and Heston models. The third set are...

We propose a price duration based covariance matrix estimator using high frequency transactions data. The effect of the last-tick time-synchronisation methodology, together with effects of important market microstructure components is analysed through a comprehensive Monte Carlo study. To...