We empirically test the effects of unanticipated positive versus negative fiscal policy shocks on the growth rate and the cyclical component of real private output. In doing so, we employed two alternative approaches. The first one uses vector autoregressive systems in order to construct the...

In this paper, we present a forecasting model of bank failures based on machine-learning. The proposed methodology defines a linear decision boundary separating the solvent from the failed banks. This setup generates a novel alternative stress testing tool. Our sample of 1443 U.S. banks includes...