One of the main drawbacks of the original CreditRisk+ methodology is that it models the default rates of the sectors (e.g. industry) as independently distributed random variables. Such an assumption has been considered as unrealistic and various approaches have been proposed in order to overcome...

In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting...

An Estimated DSGE model for Denmark with Housing, Banking, and Financial Friktions The financial crisis has moved attention to the modeling of financial frictions and banks in DSGE models. The preceding housing boom put focus on the need to incorporate developments in the residential sector,...

The paper illustrates some of the well-known problems with cointegration analysis in order to provide some perspective on the usefulness of cointegration techniques in applied economics. A number of numerical examples are employed to compare econometric estimation on the basis of both...

This paper develops a model of macroeconomic forecasting in which the wages firms pay their forecasters are a function of their accuracy as well as the publicity they generate for their employers by being correct. In the resulting Nash equilibrium, forecasters with identical models, information,...

This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of a Chinese yuan appreciation. The estimated effects on U.S. output and employment are modest. Positive effects on U.S. output from a decrease in imports from China are offset by negative effects on U.S....

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...