We study the relationship between monetary policy and long-term rates in a structural, general equilibrium model estimated on both macro and yields data from the United States. Regime shifts in the conditional variance of productivity shocks, or "uncertainty shocks", are an important model...

We study the relationship between monetary policy and long‐term rates in a structural, general equilibrium model estimated on both macro‐ and yield‐data from the United States. Regime shifts in the conditional variance of productivity shocks, or "uncertainty shocks," are a crucial driver...

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a...