Financial cycles can be important drivers of real activity, but there is scant evidence about how well they signal recession risks. We run a horse race between the term spread - the most widely used indicator in the literature - and a range of financial cycle measures. Unlike most papers, ours...

This article provides several estimates for the shadow rate (SR) of the short-term interest rate in US. We assume maximal models with two and three Gaussian factors, and we use forward rates to estimate the model's parameters. Based on that, we conclude that point estimates of SR should be taken...

This paper provides several estimates of the GARCH models' parameters for the S&P500 index, based on returns and CBOE VIX. Using a daily sample collected from 2007 to 2022, we can conclude that adding the VIX information improves the estimates of the long-term volatility. By providing an...