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The understanding of co-movements, dependence, and influence between variables of interest is key in many applications. Broadly speaking such understanding can lead to better predictions and decision making in many settings. We propose Quantile Graphical Models (QGMs) to characterize prediction...
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approximated country risk with historical stock volatility, a measure that is uniform and available across countries; in addition …, we measured spillovers as the share of forecast error variance explained by different volatility factors. We found that … systemic risk is the main volatility factor in all systemic economies, and also accounts for the bulk of spillovers into non …
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