The online Supplement presents the proof the auxiliary Lemmas 1-6, the entire set of tables with results from the Monte Carlo and the empirical studies, and further discussion on selected topics.Full paper is available at: 'https://ssrn.com/abstract=2707176' https://ssrn.com/abstract=2707176

We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using rich datasets by adopting the class of Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models. We overcome the estimation issue that arises with this class of models by implementing an iterative ordinary least squares...

We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....

We develop the econometric theory for Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor models for large panels of time series, with a particular focus on building estimators of impulse response functions to unexpected macroeconomic shocks. We derive conditions for consistent estimation of the model as both the...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

During emerging market crises, domestic agents might have sufficient collateral to borrow from the other domestic agents, but they are unable to borrow from foreigners because the country, as a whole, lacks international collateral. In this setting, we show that an (ex-post) optimizing central...

The economy system is like that of human bodies. In human bodies, both the stock and the velocity of blood are very important. In the economy system, the stock of money and its velocity have the analogous positions. But in the development of the monetary economics, economists have devoted more...

One of the criticisms routinely advanced against models of the business cycle with staggered contracts is their inability to generate inflation persistence. This paper finds that staggered Taylor contracts are, in fact, capable of reproducing the inflation persistence implied by U.S. data....

This work adds to Lucas (2000) by providing analytical solutions to two problems that are solved only numerically by the author. The first part uses a theorem in control theory (Arrow's sufficiency theorem) to provide sufficiency conditions to characterize the optimum in a shopping-time problem...

We study how real exchange rate dynamics are affected by monetary policy in dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium, sticky-price models. Our analytical and quantitative results show that the source of interest rate persistence - policy inertia or persistent policy shocks - is key. When the...