Showing 1 - 10 of 24,443
In this paper we estimate the causal effect of children on the labor supply of women using panel data on women from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79). We examine the effect of children both prior to and after birth as well as how the effect of children varies with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319106
This paper sets up a Gibbs sampler for a three state Markov switching model with non-constant transition probabilities. The step from two to three states is accomplished by the use of a multinomial probit model for the latent variable process. The algorithm is then applied to Swiss GDP data in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773497
Multi-population mortality forecasting has become an increasingly important area in actuarial science and demography, as a means to avoid long-run divergence in mortality projection. This paper aims to establish a unified state-space Bayesian framework to model, estimate and forecast mortality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832560
Regression analyses of cross-country economic growth data are complicated by two main forms of model uncertainty: the … uncertainty in selecting explanatory variables and the uncertainty in specifying the functional form of the regression function …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382708
Regression analyses of cross-country economic growth data are complicated by two main forms of model uncertainty: the … uncertainty in selecting explanatory variables and the uncertainty in specifying the functional form of the regression function …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131342
Recent studies have showed that it is troublesome, in practice, to distinguish between long memory and nonlinear processes. Therefore, it is of obvious interest to try to capture both features of long memory and non-linearity into a single time series model to be able to assess their relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014050821
We develop a new Bayesian panel regression approach to estimating an unknown number of breaks and forecasting future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912361
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724346
We develop a non-linear forecast combination rule based on copulas that incorporate the dynamic interaction between individual predictors. This approach is optimal in the sense that the resulting combined forecast produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by the receiver operating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010475341
In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner’s g prior. The main results are fourfold: First the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009731778