We integrate systemic financial instability in an empirical macroeconomic model for the euro area. We find that at times of widespread financial instability the macroeconomy functions fundamentally differently from tranquil times. We employ a richly specified Markov-Switching...

Das vorliegende Papier geht der Frage nach, wie eng der deutsche Kapitalmarktzins über den Zeitraum von Mitte der 70er Jahre bis Anfang 1998 an die Zinsverhältnisse in den USA gebunden war. Häufig geäußerten Vennutungen folgend wird daneben überprüft, ob die "Auslandsabhängigkeit" des...

We propose a novel empirical approach to inform monetary policymakers about the potential effects of policy action when facing trade-offs between financial and macroeconomic stability. We estimate a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) for the euro area covering the real economy, monetary...

The financial market turbulence in 1998, as other crises previously, produced strong price movements in the securities markets worldwide. This reflected, first, a general reassessment of credit risk, and, second, a drying-up of liquidity even in some of the largest mature securities markets. As...