We propose a modelling treatment for the option-implied risk neutral distribution (RND) which disaggregates its long-term and short-term dynamics. Long memory parameters calibrated on the RND moments serve as tractable mathematical constructs to filter out effects of smooth structural change...

I build a price-ratio model based on the Campbell and Shiller (1988) decomposition to test which components of investor expectations best explains cross-sectional price differences. I evaluate the in- and out-of-sample performance of my model, which uses a higher-order expansion with an added...

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic news announcements (MNA) on the stock market. Stocks exhibit a strong positive response to major MNA: 1 standard deviation of MNA surprise causes 11-25 bps higher returns. This response is highly time-varying and is weaker during periods of high...

We interrogate 140 years of macrofinancial data from three directions. The first approach pays attention to the slow buildup of financial imbalances that threaten financial stability and isolates medium-term movements in credit and property prices to identify national financial cycles. We show...

In contrast to some recent research, this article finds that regression approach futures hedge ratios are stationary. It shows that a previous study's failure to reject the random walk null hypothesis was due to its small sample size and the overlapping hedge ratio calculation approach's bias...

The upward bias of the widely used Thompson-Waller estimator has been pointed out in the literature. In contrast the current paper provides a case the estimator would have downward bias. Such case satisfies the two conditions: (i) the buy (sell) order tends to follow buy (sell) order and (ii)...

We perform an empirical study of a set of large institutional orders executed in the U.S. equity market. Our results validate the hidden order arbitrage theory proposed by Farmer et al. (2013) of the market impact of large institutional orders. We find that large trades are drawn from a...

The stock beta coefficient literature extensively discusses the proper methods for the estimation of beta as well as its use in asset valuation. However, there are fewer references with respect to the appropriate time horizon that investors should utilize when evaluating the risk-return...

This paper develops a model of exchange rate dynamics that takes into account speculative positions in foreign and domestic equities in addition to the "standard" positions in short-term riskless deposits. The modeling of cross-country stock holdings is motivated by evidence that a large and...

There has been an extraordinary decrease in order execution time on stock exchanges in the past two decades. A related question is whether there has been a similar reduction in orders of magnitude for the lengths of the lead lag time between stocks. If the answer is affirmative, and the lengths...