This paper proposes a new mutual exciting regime-switching model where crises can spread contagiously across countries. Each country has its own hidden stochastic process that determines whether it is in a normal or crisis regime. The mutual-excitation component allows interactions in the Markov...

This paper explores the impact of the European debt crisis on the valuation of sovereign debt in the euro area in a structural model that merges a sovereign country's stock market, CDS market, and its national finances. By estimating the model over the period from July 2007 to April 2012 using...