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substantially improve both the statistical and economic out-of-sample performance of multivariate models for return predictability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239660
We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is …-series momentum, which strengthens in bad times, increases with disagreement, and crashes after sharp market rebounds. We provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
reviews the theory and literature on market efficiency and market anomalies. We give a brief review on market efficiency and …. This review is useful to academics for developing cutting-edge treatments of financial theory that EMH, anomalies, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012237439
This paper proposes a latent dynamic factor model for low- as well as high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The approach is based on the matrix logarithm and allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns by combining common latent factors driven by HAR dynamics and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341025
Recently, several copula-based approaches have been proposed for modeling stationary multivariate time series. All of them are based on vine copulas, and they differ in the choice of the regular vine structure. In this article, we consider a copula autoregressive (COPAR) approach to model the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011654435
return predictors, including tail risk. The predictability results are robust to out-of-sample tests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011810905
Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test for the ability of such a model to explain the cross-section of expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271368
We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances. In so doing, we provide an exact distribution-free method to test uniform linear restrictions in multivariate linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009746573
This paper attempts to estimate and study the role of 'other information', as posited in the residual income valuation model of Ohlson (1995), for tracking and predicting future returns of the S&P 500. 'Other information' is an unobserved variable and defined as a summary of value-relevant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830124
The paper tests the CAPM for the Brazilian stock market using dynamic betas. The sample involves 28 stocks included in the Ibovespa portfolio as of March 21, 2012 and that were traded during the period from Jan. 01, 1995 to March 20, 2012. Dynamic betas were estimated and conditional betas...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009746028