We explore four decades of cyclical and long-run dynamics in income distribution and economic activity for a panel of thirteen OECD countries. Based on predator-prey dynamics, we find that the business cycle is weakly profit-led , and that the long-run equilibrium has been shifting towards a...

This paper contributes to the literature on secular stagnation by estimating a measure of potential output growth for the post-war US economy derived from a novel model specification that allows for the cyclical interactions between income distribution, represented by the trajectory of the labor...

Originally presented as an empirical regularity, a variety of microeconomic derivations of the Phillips tradeoff between inflation and real output have been developed. Since these new Phillips curve models are expressed in terms of unobserved variables and expectations, we develop estimates of...

We examine the explanatory power of a political-business cycle theory in which governments practice short-run policy to lessen the impact of exogenous shocks. Governments have ideological objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve....

We examine the explanatory power of a political-business cycle theory in which governments practice short-run policy to lessen the impact of exogenous shocks. Governments have ideological objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve....

This paper provides novel insights on the changing functional distribution of income in the post-war US economy. We present a Divisia index decomposition of the US labor share (1948–2017) by fourteen sectors. The decomposition method furnishes exact contributions from four components towards...

We propose a novel methodological approach to disentangle the main structural shocks affecting the US labour share of income during the immediate post-war era (1948Q1- 1984Q4) and the Great Moderation (1985Q1-2018Q3). We motivate a SVAR model in aggregate demand, unemployment rate, real wage and...