Showing 1 - 10 of 3,316
We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391531
A new model for time-varying spatial dependencies is introduced. It forms an extension to the popular spatial lag model and can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. The spatial dependence parameter is assumed to follow a generalized autoregressive score (GAS) process. The theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491085
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705251
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015425423
The measurement of potential output has been addressed in economics from the supply- and demand-side perspectives. The purpose of this study was to deepen the latter interpretation, focusing on market conditionalities and providing a macro-model (EUMOD21) as a computational tool. This empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013296127
This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107701
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have recently become standard tools for policy-oriented analyses. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155104
We nowcast and forecast Austrian economic activity, namely real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency. While nowcasting uses data up to (and including) the quarter to be predicted, forecasting uses only data up to the previous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014432187
Macroeconomic data are an important piece of information in decision making for both the public and private sectors in Thailand. However, the release of key macroeconomic data, usually in a lower frequency such as quarterly, is not always in a timely manner. Using the higher frequency data such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247778
In this paper we use a reduced form model for the analysis of Portfolio Credit Risk. For this purpose, we fit a Dynamic Factor model, DF, to a large dataset of default rates proxies and macrovariables for Italy. Multi step ahead density and probability forecasts are obtained by employing both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159689