Intro; 1. Introduction; 2. The German Electricity Market; 3. Forecasting Performance of; 4. Forecasting Performance of Time Series Models: Empirical Study; 5. The Effect of Wind and Solar Power on Electricity Prices; 6. Conclusion

In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden verschiedene fundamentale Prognosemodelle für die Preise von stündlichen Day-Ahead Elektrizitätskontrakten auf den deutschen Markt geschätzt und getestet. Dabei wird ein breites Spektrum an fundamentalen Variablen berücksichtigt, um den spezifischen...

The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, when base futures prices dropped by more than 40 percent. In this paper we determine the fundamental components of electricity futures prices and quantify their impact on the price drop as well as on...