This article studies a version of Obstfeld's (Journal of International Economics 43 (1997), 61-77) "escape clause" model. The model is calibrated to produce three rational expectations equilibria. Two of these equilibria are E-stable and one is unstable. Dynamics are introduced by assuming that...

The authors consider the following scenario: Two agents construct models of an endogenous price process. One agent thinks the data are stationary, the other thinks the data are nonstationary. A policymaker combines forecasts from the two models using a recursive Bayesian model averaging...