Similar Search Results

Nowcasting GDP in Argentina : comparing the predictive ability of different models

Blanco, Emilio; D'Amato, Laura; Dogliolo, Fiorella; … - 2017

Having a correct assessment of current business cycle conditions is one of the major challenges for monetary policy conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771629

Comprehensive Time-Series Regression Models Using Gretl — U.S. GDP and Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment from 1980 to 2013

Shi, Juehui - 2019

Using Gretl, I apply ARMA, Vector ARMA, VAR, state-space model with a Kalman filter, transfer-function and intervention models, unit root tests, cointegration test, volatility models (ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M, Taylor-Schwert GARCH, GJR, TARCH, NARCH, APARCH, EGARCH) to analyze quarterly time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904559

Regime-dependent nowcasting of the Austrian economy

Fortin, Ines; Hlouskova, Jaroslava - 2023

We nowcast and forecast Austrian economic activity, namely real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption and … autoregressive model according to Ghysels (2016) and mixed data sampling approaches, and compare their forecast and nowcast … data. We are particularly interested in whether explicitly considering different regimes improves the nowcast. Thus we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014432187

Analyzing and Forecasting Thai Macroeconomic Data Using Mixed-Frequency Approach

Wichitaksorn, Nuttanan - 2021

Macroeconomic data are an important piece of information in decision making for both the public and private sectors in Thailand. However, the release of key macroeconomic data, usually in a lower frequency such as quarterly, is not always in a timely manner. Using the higher frequency data such...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013247778

Robust real-time estimates of the German output gap based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition

Berger, Tino; Ochsner, Christian - 2022

. The mean absolute error of our nowcast compared to the final estimate is very small (0.28 percentage points) after only …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370512

Tracking the German business cycle

Berger, Tino; Ochsner, Christian - 2022

. The mean absolute error of our nowcast is very small (0.25 percentage points) after only one month of observed data …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013174037

The European Union GDP Forecast Rationality Under Asymmetric Preferences

Christodoulakis, Nikos; Mamatzakis, Emmanuel - 2022

This paper examines the behaviour of the demand for money in Greece during 1976:1-2000:4, a period that included many of the influences that cause money-demand instability. Two empirical methodologies, vector error correction (VEC) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080674

A Federal Long-Run Projection Model for Germany

Holtemöller, Oliver - 2017

Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model features a top-down approach and, as major...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012951755

Short Term Forecasts of Economic Activity : Are Fortnightly Factors Useful?

Monteforte, Libero - 2018

A short term mixed-frequency model is proposed to estimate and forecast the Italian economic activity fortnightly. Building on Frale et al. (2011), we introduce a dynamic factor model with three frequencies (quarterly, monthly and fortnightly), by selecting indicators that show significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915134

Do Commodity Prices Affect the Australian Real Effective Exchange Rate : A Real-Time Quantile-Regression Analysis

Rohloff, Sebastian - 2018

I use a real-time quantile-regression approach to analyze whether commodity prices have predictive value for movements of the Australian real effective exchange rate. To do so, I use a modified version of Frankel's (1986, 2008, 2014) and Frankel and Rose's (2010) model of commodity price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910810