predicting unobserved true income). In particular, we find that the PWT 7.1 chain-based GDP series substantially outperforms the … of their price survey. We conclude that GDP series based on unadjusted domestic growth rates alone predict growth rates …

lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile … autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real GDP have permanent or temporary effects. In contrast to earlier studies … root hypothesis at the conditional mean of GDP, but also in the tails of the distribution where the lower tail corresponds …