Shocks to net migration matter for the business cycles of some countries. Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and a structural vector autoregression, we find that migration shocks account for a considerable proportion of the variability...

We examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run, using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3 to 3 1/2 years, in cycles that...

The impact that oil shocks have on stock prices in oil exporting countries has implications for both domestic and international investors. We derive the shocks driving oil prices from a fully-identified structural model of the oil market. We study their nonlinear relationship with stock market...

This paper empirically studies the U.S. multiplier effects of government investment, government consumption and total government purchases on output. We explore dependencies of the multipliers on states of the economy, measured in different ways. Using local projections with instrumental...