The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed...

The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed...

We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...

This paper contributes to the literature on cross-sectional earnings forecasting by showing that considering intangible investments significantly enhances the quality of the forecasts and the resulting implied cost of capital estimates. Specifically, I augment existing models by including...

Social interaction contributes to stochastic volatility and momentum in financial markets. By developing a simple evolutionary model of asset pricing and population game, we incorporate social interaction among investors with information uncertainty and show that social interaction leads to the...

This study investigates positive and negative price shocks in individual securities and the degree to which they affect related firms in the same industry. This price contagion effect is significant with initial price shocks leading to substantial long-term abnormal returns across firms in the...

The Size effect is one of the prominent anomalies which have been observed in the stock markets around the world. The present study attempts to find out if the portfolio of small stocks yields higher returns vis-a-vis the portfolio of large stocks and whether the size effect is present in the...

The value of technical analysis (TA) has been debated for decades; however, limited evidence exists on the profitability of investment recommendations issued by technical analysts. These ‘chartists' sometimes claim that TA is an art rather than a science. We evaluated more than 5000 TA-based...

As illustrated in the tale of “the dog that did not bark,” the absence of news and the passage of time often contain information. We test whether markets fully incorporate this information using the empirical context of mergers. During the year after merger announcement, the passage of time...

Empirical tests of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) have been repeated by many researchers with varying results, with several supporting it and others finding no clear evidence for it. One of the results that weakens the EMH is the study of such anomalies as the Ramadan effect. Anomaly...